Cambodia Could Overtake Thailand Economically and Demographically Within 75 Years, Expert Says

PHNOM PENH, May 7, 2026 (KPT) — Cambodia could surpass Thailand in both economic output and population size within the next 75 years if it adopts effective long term policies, according to Casey Barnett, a former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Cambodia. 

He warned that without decisive reforms, the country’s demographic and economic advantages could erode.

Barnett noted Cambodia has consistently recorded stronger growth than Thailand over the past decade, with GDP expanding by an average of 5.5% annually from 2015 to 2025, compared with about 2% in Thailand.

In 2025 alone, Cambodia’s economy grew by at least 4.8%, while Thailand managed only 2.1%. Fertility rates also point to a demographic edge, with Cambodia at 2.5 births per woman compared with 1.2 in Thailand.

To sustain momentum, Barnett proposed extending maternity leave, offering childcare vouchers, expanding health coverage to include fertility treatments, and providing $3,000 incentives for couples having a third or fourth child.

He cautioned against military conscription, saying it could weaken GDP growth, and urged attracting overseas Cambodians and foreign professionals through long term visas and residency incentives.

Barnett said financing could come from stronger property tax collection, noting Cambodia’s current rate is far below international standards. He stressed that adopting such measures would allow Cambodia to protect labor productivity, strengthen family support, and position itself to eventually close the gap with Thailand.