Can Tariffs Stop the Fighting? Doubts Grow Over Leverage on Thailand

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (Dec. 15, 2025) — Analysts say threats of trade penalties are unlikely to shift Thailand’s approach to its border conflict with Cambodia, as Thai forces continue arming and striking civilian areas after rejecting a ceasefire proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Deth Sok Udom, a professor at Paragon International University, said tariff threats alone are unlikely to pressure Bangkok.

“Domestic calculations significantly outweigh international pressure,” he said, adding that the clashes are unlikely to draw sustained global attention compared with larger crises in Gaza and Ukraine.

He noted that the international community is unlikely to take sides where doing so could jeopardize core national interests.

Sok Udom also questioned ASEAN’s ability to enforce a ceasefire, saying the bloc lacks effective mechanisms without a United Nations Security Council mandate and resources.

“It is hard to say,” he added, “but given the number of global crises, President Trump may view the conflict as a territorial dispute between two equal parties.”

Sanctions and political calculations

Thong Mengdavid, deputy director of the China-ASEAN Studies Centre, said the Thai military appears indifferent to sanctions, though political leaders may calculate differently.

“At this stage, the Thai military does not appear concerned about sanctions,” he said. “But for caretaker Prime Minister Anutin, the calculation is different.”

Mengdavid said Anutin is likely to seek to persuade Trump not to impose tariffs by portraying Cambodia as the aggressor.

He warned that Thailand’s military threat remains significant, raising the risk of escalation as actions are framed as anticipatory self-defense.

“For Cambodia, this represents a serious strategic and security risk,” he said, adding that Phnom Penh is likely to remain cautious until Thailand’s civilian and military leadership show unified commitment.

Trump warns of tariffs

Trump has said he may impose additional trade duties on both Thailand and Cambodia if hostilities continue. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, he described tariffs as a key foreign policy tool.

“I just used tariffs 10 minutes ago… to settle the new inflammation that took place with Thailand and Cambodia,” Trump said. “If you have the war, not only am I going to break the trade deal we have, but I’m going to put tariffs on your country.”

The newspaper said the interview was recorded Friday, following Trump’s calls with Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet.

Trump also said it would be “terrible” if the U.S. Supreme Court ruled some of his trade measures illegal, but insisted his administration would find alternative legal grounds if necessary.

Ceasefire efforts falter

On Dec. 13, Malaysia proposed a ceasefire to take effect at 10 p.m. Saturday, with an ASEAN Observer Team deploying alongside U.S. satellite monitoring, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced.

Hun Manet quickly welcomed the initiative, saying Cambodia supported ASEAN-led monitoring with U.S. participation. Thailand, however, rejected the proposal.

Anutin said there was no agreement after Thailand reported its first civilian death from a Cambodian rocket attack following eight days of fighting. “There was no plan nor agreement by the Thai government for a ceasefire with our enemy as of 10 p.m. last night,” Anutin said in a Facebook post.

Previous commitments

In October, the prime ministers of Cambodia and Thailand signed a joint declaration in Trump’s presence on the sidelines of the 47th ASEAN Summit.

The declaration outlined steps toward de-escalation, confidence-building and peaceful resolution of the long-running border dispute.

Despite those commitments, analysts warn that mistrust and competing political interests continue to undermine diplomatic efforts.