Cambodian Analysts Warn of Regional Fallout as China–Japan Tensions Escalate Over Taiwan

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (Nov. 21, 2025) — Cambodian analysts are warning of potential regional risks as tensions between China and Japan intensify following recent remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan.

Thong Mengdavid, a lecturer at the Royal University of Phnom Penh, said Tokyo’s comments reflect a firmer defense posture amid growing unease over China’s military activities and regional influence.

“China naturally sees this as a challenge to its core One-China principle and a threat to regional harmony and security,” he said. “While the dispute is geographically far from Cambodia, the ripple effects could be felt across Asia, creating uncertainty for trade, investment and regional cooperation.”

Mengdavid noted that Cambodia could face indirect consequences if tensions escalate, including disruptions to regional trade or increased diplomatic pressure within ASEAN.

Given Cambodia’s close relationship with China and long-standing adherence to the One-China policy, he said the government is likely to proceed with caution.

“The safest path for Cambodia is careful neutrality,” he said. “That means continuing to support the One-China policy, staying engaged in ASEAN and other multilateral mechanisms, and broadening its network of economic partners.”

Kin Phea, director of the International Relations Institute at the Royal Academy of Cambodia, said the heightened friction underscores “the fragility of East Asia’s security environment.”

He warned that China’s reaffirmation of its position on Taiwan, coupled with Japan’s willingness to speak out, raises the risk of miscalculation between two major powers.

“For Cambodia, which maintains close strategic and development partnerships with both China and Japan, these tensions are neither distant nor abstract,” Phea said. “They have real implications for regional stability, economic linkages and the long-term trajectory of Asia’s growth.”

He added that Cambodia’s stance remains unchanged: neutrality, support for peaceful dialogue and respect for internationally recognized diplomatic frameworks, including the One-China policy.

At the same time, he stressed that Cambodia values its ties with both nations — China as a major source of infrastructure investment and Japan as a long-standing partner in governance reform, education and human resource development.

“These partnerships have played essential roles in Cambodia’s post-conflict reconstruction and modern development,” Phea said.