Border crisis tests China’s regional influence, ASEAN unity

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — Cambodian analysts say China’s push to mediate the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict offers rare hope as clashes intensify, killing civilians and displacing nearly half a million.

Kin Phea, director of the International Relations Institute at the Royal Academy of Cambodia, said Beijing’s involvement signals more than bilateral diplomacy, warning that unchecked violence threatens regional stability and ASEAN security.

“This confrontation could affect regional stability and ASEAN security if it is not contained,” Phea said.

China’s mediation comes as Cambodian authorities accuse Thai forces of indiscriminate attacks on villages and schools, claims Thailand denies.

At least 18 civilians have been killed since fighting reignited Dec. 7, less than two months after both sides signed a peace declaration.

The Interior Ministry reports 79 injured and more than 498,000 displaced, most of them women and children.

Phea said China’s close ties with both governments and its strategic interest in preventing escalation make its role pivotal.

He noted Beijing has engaged in ceasefire talks since clashes began, adopting what he described as a non-coercive approach.

Cambodia has welcomed mediation from multiple actors, including the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN. But analysts say China’s involvement carries particular weight.

Thong Mengdavid, deputy director of the China-ASEAN Studies Centre, said Beijing’s role reflects its bid to be seen as a stabilizer.

“China would like to see both countries at peace and prefers that they resolve disputes through multilateral mechanisms supported by ASEAN,” he said.

Still, Mengdavid cautioned that success depends on political will. Cambodia views China’s role as supportive, he said, while Thailand may see it as pressure.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday urged both sides to commit to a ceasefire and rebuild trust, expressing sorrow over civilian casualties.

China’s special envoy Deng Xijun has begun shuttle diplomacy between Phnom Penh and Bangkok to restore dialogue.

Lieutenant General Maly Socheata, a Cambodian Defense Ministry spokesperson, accused Thailand of violating international law and urged global condemnation.

Analysts say whether China’s mediation can stem violence will test both its regional influence and ASEAN’s capacity to contain conflict at its core.